The Fourth Turning

[HomelessPatriot]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2...nal_theory

[HomelessPatriot]

My Favorite Theory: The Fourth Turning = How our “crisis” in America will end. Thoughts? 

The Fourth Turning is a phrase introduced by William Strauss and Neil Howe as part of their generational theory that describes how human societies go through clear and predictable cycles.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” - Mark Twain.
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Fourth Turning Framework:
The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct modern history that moves in cycles.
Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, typically around 80 - 100 years ― a unit of time that the ancients called the saeculum ― and consists of four Turnings which typically last around 20 - 25 years.
Each Turning marks a profound shift in how people feel about themselves, the culture, the nation and the future.
Together, the four Turnings comprise history’s periodic rhythm, in which the seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter correspond to eras of rebirth, growth, entropy and finally creative destruction. Like the four seasons, Turnings can be long or short, they can start early or late, but they cannot be avoided.
This lifecycle of the four Turnings is made inevitable by four generational archetypes and their order. Strauss and Howe argue this phenomenon has recurred throughout modernity.
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The Four Turnings:
The Four Turnings that William Strauss and Neil Howe describe are:
• The First Turning | The High/Spring ― This is an upbeat era where institutions are at their strongest while individualism is at its weakest. Values converge and society seeks unity.
• The Second Turning | The Awakening/Summer ― This is a passionate era where institutions weaken while individualism strengthens. Values are questioned, leading to cultural revivals.
• The Third Turning | The Unravelling/Autumn ― This is a downbeat era where institutions are at their weakest while individualism is at its strongest. Values diverge and society seeks separation.
• The Fourth Turning | The Crisis/Winter ― This is a decisive era where institutions strengthen and individualism weakens. Values are replaced, leading to a new societal order.
After the Fourth Turning comes a new cycle that follows the same pattern.
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Here is our history block of 80 - 100 years:
. First Turning (High/Spring): 1946 - 1963 > Post-WWII Boom, National Unity, Strong Institutions, Cultural Collectivism.
. Second Turning (Awakening/Summer): 1963 - 1984 > Counterculture, Civil Rights, Women’s Liberation Movement, Questioning Authority.
. Third Turning (Unraveling/Autumn): 1984 - 2008 > Institutional Decline, Individualism, Culture War, Economic Division.
. Fourth Turning (Crisis/Winter): 2008 - 2028/2033 > Financial Crisis, Political Instability, Radical Individualism, Global Unrest, Political/Economic/Cultural Climax.
We are heading towards a turbulent period and approaching a stormy reset which historically speaking leads to a new “Golden Era” of stability and prosperity.
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Generational Archetypes:
Every person belongs to a generation. Every generation belongs to one of four archetypes and has its own common narrative.
The saeculum has four recurring generational archetypes, always in the same order.
They are: Prophets, Nomads, Heroes and Artists.
Each archetype has a general set of characteristics and endowments which feed into the self-fulfilling nature of the four turnings.
As each generation ages, its persona undergoes profound changes. However, each archetype has an underlying identity that endures.
When a generation reaches mid-life and occupies the leadership roles of society, it reflects this orientation on its social environment.
This is one of the key reasons why each generation exerts a dominant formative influence on people who are two generations younger ― no two consecutive generations are alike.
As we will see, hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men and weak men create hard times.
Throughout their lives, the archetypes can be characterised as follows.

[HomelessPatriot]

The Prophet Generation (Most Recent: Born Between 1946 - 1964):
A Prophet generation is born during the First Turning.
A Prophet generation tends to grow up as increasingly indulged children during a High, evolve into narcissistic young adults during an Awakening, emerge as moralistic mid-lifers during an Unravelling and age into wise elders during a Crisis.
Principal endowments for the Prophet generation include vision, values and religion.
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The Nomad Generation (Most Recent: Born Between 1964 - 1984):
A Nomad generation is born during the Second Turning.
A Nomad generation tends to grow up as underprotected children during an Awakening, evolve into alienated young adults during an Unravelling, emerge as pragmatic mid-lifers during a Crisis and age into resilient elders during a High.
Principal endowments for the Nomad generation include liberty, survival and honour.
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The Hero Generation (Most Recent: Born Between 1984 - 2005):
A Hero generation is born during the Third Turning.
A Hero generation tends to grow up as increasingly protected children during an Unravelling, evolve into teamworkers during a Crisis, emerge as energetic leaders during a High and age into powerful elders during an Awakening.
Principal endowments for the Hero generation include community, affluence and technology.
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The Artist Generation (Most Recent: Born Between 2005 - 2026):
An Artist generation is born during the Fourth Turning.
An Artist generation tends to grow up as overprotected children during a Crisis, evolve into sensitive young adults during a High, emerge as indecisive leaders during an Awakening and age into empathic elders during an Unravelling.
Principal endowments for the Artist generation include pluralism, expertise and due process.
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[HomelessPatriot]

Fourth Turning Predictions – Where Are We Now & What Can We Expect?:
As of 2025, we are currently deep into a Fourth Turning. This is evidenced by the global challenges, socio-political upheavals and breakdown of institutions we are experiencing.
Historically, Fourth Turnings have culminated in significant societal restructuring.
The same way that a fire engulfs a forest by destroying the weakest trees which allow the strongest trees to thrive, a Fourth Turning engulfs a society by destroying all the weak institutions which allow the strongest institutions to thrive.
Given this pattern, we can anticipate continued disorder, disruptions and challenges.
However, the aftermath will lead us into a First Turning. This will be characterised as a “Golden Age” marked by a sense of rejuvenation, unity, prosperity and strengthened societal structures.
We can expect the Crisis/Winter to reach its end anytime between 2028 and 2033.
This “Crisis” will end in either 3 ways:
Civil War (Cultural or Military) - Republican States vs Democrat States - Woke vs Awake - Conservative vs Liberal
Global War - WW3 - NATO and Allied forces (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) vs Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 


Me: IMHO We are in the 4th Turning and the cleanup is taking place. My guess is WW3.

[Arkansas Ted]

Fourth Turning Predictions – Where Are We Now & What Can We Expect?:
As of 2025, we are currently deep into a Fourth Turning. This is evidenced by the global challenges, socio-political upheavals and breakdown of institutions we are experiencing.
Historically, Fourth Turnings have culminated in significant societal restructuring.
The same way that a fire engulfs a forest by destroying the weakest trees which allow the strongest trees to thrive, a Fourth Turning engulfs a society by destroying all the weak institutions which allow the strongest institutions to thrive.
Given this pattern, we can anticipate continued disorder, disruptions and challenges.
However, the aftermath will lead us into a First Turning. This will be characterised as a “Golden Age” marked by a sense of rejuvenation, unity, prosperity and strengthened societal structures.
We can expect the Crisis/Winter to reach its end anytime between 2028 and 2033.
This “Crisis” will end in either 3 ways:
Civil War (Cultural or Military) - Republican States vs Democrat States - Woke vs Awake - Conservative vs Liberal
Global War - WW3 - NATO and Allied forces (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) vs Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 


Me: IMHO We are in the 4th Turning and the cleanup is taking place. My guess is WW3.

I want to reply to your post Brother but, it will be the same as I posted a  few years ago. Everything has happened so far.

[DaJavoo]

Followed Strauss-Howe Generational Theory since the books were published ~ it makes a great deal of sense.

Sadly, William Strauss passed in 2007 and didn't live to see the unraveling.  Neil Howe still speaks & consults on generational issues.

The 'theory' actually consists of the complete history of the U.S. and also, the world.

Looking at the last 80 years or so doesn't do it justice, although that's what we're all in sync with.


I hope folks new to this will do themselves a favor and fall down the rabbit hole!   

[HomelessPatriot]

[ELIAKIM]

My generation were born with Pluto in Leo many of us were born to some parents that could be closed emotionally due to what they had suffered during the war. They didn't like to show their emotions to their children and as such, it could build up inside them and then erupt. Leaving children to ask themselves the reason why and what had caused such an eruption. Seeking to understand the environment in which we were growing up in. 

Has such we were very sensitive to others moods and reactions, although I think it helped to bring forth our intuitive selves which was essential for the third watch. 

https://www.yourtango.com/zodiac/pluto-generations

[SlowLoris]

[Gallowglassie1]

That plus Neptune in Scorpio too!!!

Not to sidetrack it off Strauss and Howe too much as celestial influence on the Fourth Turning could be its own thread

But the placement was destiny for the first phase of the Nomads, end/last generation of the Piscean Age.